Another timely release from the Brotherhood of St. Laurence in to the trends in Youth Unemployment. This is good work that should be shared widely.
The rate and nature of asynchronous policy challenges in industry and labour-markets, I fear, is extending policy-makers beyond their capabilities [and interests]
Unemployed But More Educated
Supporting our own contention [but trying to avoid confirmation bias..] the BSL report contributes a laser-focus to the structural change that many still debate.
Since the GFC, based on the HILDA data we found the proportion of the pool of unemployed people with less than Year 12 has declined. This group made up more than 44 per cent of the unemployed in every year up to 2010, then dropped sharply to 32 per cent in 2011 and 36 per cent in 2012. Meanwhile, the proportion of unemployed people with some tertiary education has increased since 2010.
These results provide some preliminary evidence to counter the hypothesis proposed by some economists that job-finding probability has been declining because of the changed characteristics of the pool of unemployed (the composition effect). This suggests that the explanation for the decline in Australia’s job-finding rate is far more complicated than just deterioration in the profile of the unemployed.
The BSL report complements and supports our own state-wide data update released today [Update 3.1 Login required].
When you combine this with the un-nerving trends in LONG-TERM unemployment, I know which side of the Cyclical vs Structural debate I am on..The BSL reports confirms:
It can’t be said enough, amid a steady rise in the overall unemployment rate, Australia’s youth continue to bear the brunt – and teenagers are faring worst of all.